Weekly Mortgage, Finance, and Real Estate Roundup - January 5, 2024

1. Canadian Housing Market and Interest Rate Forecasts

(Source: Canadian Mortgage Trends)

After a challenging 2023, the Canadian housing market looks towards 2024 with cautious optimism. The past year saw the Bank of Canada increase interest rates, impacting variable-rate borrowers and those renewing mortgages​​. However, 2024 is expected to bring some relief with forecasts predicting a decrease in interest rates. This change is anticipated to bolster home sales and prices, though the extent of growth remains a topic of debate among experts​​.

Key forecasts for 2024 include:

• Home sales: Expected to increase by 9% to 490,257​​.
• Home prices: Predicted to grow by 1.5%, with national average prices remaining in the $680,000-$700,000 range​​.
• Aggregate house price: Anticipated to rise by 5% to $843,684 by Q4​​.

2. Criticism and Outlook on B.C.'s Homeowner Grant

(Source: Global News)

In British Columbia, the homeowner grant's threshold this year is set at $2.15 million, covering 92% of homes in the province. Critics argue for an update to the grant, suggesting it should be income-tested to better reflect regional real estate prices​​. Suggestions for introducing a renters credit or benefit are also discussed, aiming to create equity between renters and homeowners​​​​. The current homeowner grant for Metro Vancouver and other districts is $570, with $770 allocated for the rest of the province​​.

3. 2024 Outlook for the Canadian Housing Market

(Source: Global News)

2024 might mark the end of the housing market correction, with interest rate cuts on the horizon. This potential change could encourage buyers currently sidelined by high rates, particularly millennials and residents in British Columbia and Quebec​​. The spring market is expected to see some activity, but significant recovery in sales and prices might only occur in the latter half of the year​​. Royal LePage forecasts a 5.5% increase in home prices by Q4 2024​​.

Rental market pressures, primarily from high demand and inadequate housing supply, are also noteworthy. There's a growing belief that homeownership is increasingly becoming a luxury out of reach for many Canadians​​​​. The need for additional housing units and the federal government's plans to accelerate construction are highlighted as critical steps to improve market conditions​​.

This roundup provides a snapshot of the current trends and forecasts in the Canadian real estate and mortgage sectors as of early 2024. Stay tuned for more updates in the coming weeks.